Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Fiscal Cliff Wrap Up
Dear traders and investors,
Finally, the US congress finally solved the "fiscal cliff", and temporarily stopping the mania over it. In reality, the market did expect this outcome, because the markets continued to rally through most of the mania, and bond markets continued to fall. In the last few days of the mania, stock markets started correcting, due to any fears caused about the deadliness, I am going to go into this market long stocks if we continue to break to new levels and I will be short bonds if they continue to breakdown. Unfortunately, I will not be able to do much to exploit of this idea because my accounts are transferring at the current time. Finally, the deal passed, and the congress has solved some short-term problems involving it. Despite this, my largest worry is that the lack of efficiency in congress. They have had no efficiency in passing or doing anything, and I worry about what they do when we have a serious economic problem.
Sincerely,
Kid Trader
Finally, the US congress finally solved the "fiscal cliff", and temporarily stopping the mania over it. In reality, the market did expect this outcome, because the markets continued to rally through most of the mania, and bond markets continued to fall. In the last few days of the mania, stock markets started correcting, due to any fears caused about the deadliness, I am going to go into this market long stocks if we continue to break to new levels and I will be short bonds if they continue to breakdown. Unfortunately, I will not be able to do much to exploit of this idea because my accounts are transferring at the current time. Finally, the deal passed, and the congress has solved some short-term problems involving it. Despite this, my largest worry is that the lack of efficiency in congress. They have had no efficiency in passing or doing anything, and I worry about what they do when we have a serious economic problem.
Sincerely,
Kid Trader
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Friday, November 9, 2012
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Major Market Review 11/1/2012
Stocks (/ES, SPX, OR SPY)
So far I am neutral on the stock market until it breaks its sideways trend. If the S&P 500 futures break above the 1431 level I will become officially upside biased for the short-term. I think it is likely that we see a break to the upside in the stock market, because of the good economic reports involving the jobs numbers. I also am starting to see earnings season improve after the string of junk we've seen before. My downside model is earnings get worse and we break below 1400.
Bonds (/ZB OR TLT)
If the stock market rises I expect bonds to move down as money moves back into risk assets. I also am seeing an increase in interest rates, but the move in interest rates may just be a fake out, and they could move down. Overall we are depending on earnings to drive bonds. If earnings season is better expect downside movement. If earnings are worse expect the opposite.
So far I am neutral on the stock market until it breaks its sideways trend. If the S&P 500 futures break above the 1431 level I will become officially upside biased for the short-term. I think it is likely that we see a break to the upside in the stock market, because of the good economic reports involving the jobs numbers. I also am starting to see earnings season improve after the string of junk we've seen before. My downside model is earnings get worse and we break below 1400.
Bonds (/ZB OR TLT)
If the stock market rises I expect bonds to move down as money moves back into risk assets. I also am seeing an increase in interest rates, but the move in interest rates may just be a fake out, and they could move down. Overall we are depending on earnings to drive bonds. If earnings season is better expect downside movement. If earnings are worse expect the opposite.
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