Once Again Short Delta

I have once again moved my delta short. For the last several weeks, I have kept my position between flat and short. Why have I moved short again? The answer is tail risk. The market is so high and overblown that you have a ton of risk to the downside. The Vix almost tested it's 11.4 low again this year, and it is trading at 12.46 now. You have to expect the market to revert with volatility at such a low level. We are also starting to see rotation into junk. You have crappy stocks like BBRY, CLF, JCP, and WLT up, but you have market leaders like AAPL, GOOG, TWTR, AMZN, or BIDU down or not going up. When we have this rotation we are almost alway near a top, but that perspective is subjective. However, being strategic and mechanical is more important than your direction. Stay strategic not directional, but their is a certain amount of room for delta risk. Therefore, I will not "load them up", but their is good reason not be long this market. When you have VIX at 12.46 you almost always will get some sort of reversion. Maybe we get a 5-7% correction in the next couple of week that may be it, but it could easily be 10-15%. Just because we are all getting back from Christmas vacation doesn't nothing can happen.

Here is an interesting statistical study on the market falling in the next few days: