Friday, May 31, 2013

Thanks!

Thank you market! We finally have gotten some major downside action and vol expansion. Hopefully, the market regains its health and we get some cyclical market action. I am still staying very short as we still have a good amount room to move down. What is really interesting that this action happened on a Friday. It was a re-balancing day, but Fridays are usually very slow days, and the market fell apart in the last few hours of trading only. I continue to be short VXX puts, and I just got short some FAZ puts. I think a good long might be WLT as it's short puts have a high return on capital, and the stock is fairly cheap compared to implied vol. I would be careful with short puts as it looks like the down move is getting respect. Another long is bonds. Bonds seem to have capitulated, and they seem very cheap for a short-term play. However, overtime Bonds have a lot of room to go down because interest rates have a lot of room to go up, a lot. As for something I don't usually do I sold the FXE-FXY pair just to keep myself engaged. FXY has good pot odds to the upside, and FXE possibly could go a little lower even if it may have a lot of upside. I am skewed the pair to bullishness in FXY because of how over sold FXY is.

Friday, May 24, 2013

Markets Are Getting Some Vol

Finally, the S&P's are starting to see some action. Bonds have had a lot of trading opportunities (which I took just a little of it), Natural Gas has shown some two sided trade, Gold has opportunities, but only a few stocks show opportunity such as: CLF,NEM,WLT,and BBRY. Otherwise, everything is a short. At this point, the market will probably fall as we are so extended, and we are at the very end of the distribution curve. For the most part the market is a random walk, but markets do get extended, and tend to go the other way. Lets hope after the market falls we see some two-sided trade, and normal market action. My big short position is short puts in VXX. I am short a lot of delta, but I would like to see two-sided trade. However, I want some stocks to get crushed, so we can see some positive theta and higher vol opportunities for short puts or short strangles. Now, I don't trade the Nikkie, but I just want to mention that is seeing a lot of volatility, as it went down 7.5% and was still volatile today.


Saturday, May 11, 2013

Finally! I hope.

The market is acting kind of toppy. I kind of like the ES moving nowhere after this large upside movement in the last week or two. I find the movement in bonds to the downside very interesting, along with gold, silver, oil, yen, and natural gas. I really do think somethings got to give. I do have some short puts in SLV, and I need to do something in the yen. I would keep in mind that the NQ has finally caught up with the ES, YM, and TF. So, NQ and TF are my two favorite shorts. However, please stay short don't ever get long traders, at least not in these market conditions. My main short as of date is my short puts in VXX, which are still appealing.

Friday, May 3, 2013

Who is responsible!

I came in so short today it is not even funny! However, I was up money! I really do hate this constant grind to the upside. I really would like to see some two sided trade. I came in short 30 SPY beta weighted delta, but I did end up decreasing some of my short delta. I have been fairly delta neutral after the market had that big down week, but I still have always been short. I really want to know is responsible for the market going up, in other words, who in the world is buying. I like the down move in bonds, as they are know trading around 147, down 2 points today. A very interesting, cheap, long play is in the yen. The yen was totally crushed today down .000106 trading at .010104. I really do hope the market gives us traders something to act on. Maybe some sort of topping action. Please? Again the whole market is such a short besides maybe SLV, GDX, CLF, and NEM. A trade I did not realease was the Euro short. I have the long 129/130 put spread in June. I really do not see any longs in anything else. As for natural gas, we saw a huge down move. I have closed my bearish position, and maybe it could be a short on a good up move. An interesting pairs trade might be short Gold long silver, and I would give it an upside skew in silver due to my directional bias, as silver is very cheap compared to gold.

Thursday, May 2, 2013

Getting a Little More Short

I will admit it. I eliminated my a lot of my short risk, but I am know taking on some more risk to the upside. I like this upside movement because it just gave us traders a great level to short. Vol really did expand on that previous downside movement, but it was not yet clear whether it would contract or not. I believe vol as gotten very cheap as of now. So, I have reloaded on my VXX puts and I have am putting on bearish positions in the financials and in stocks like MSFT, BBRY, and BBY. I think GDX and SLV are for sure some good upside trades, so I have shorted some puts. I put on a covered call in NEM which I am just loving, but it is still good for more trades like that. I also am putting on a short put trade in JCP, just to keep my short risk low. For now, I think the whole market is a sale especially some of the blue chip stocks. As for a major market short, I like the TF short as the TF has a lot of downside velocity.