Monday, September 30, 2013

Sticking With the Long Side for Now

I know I am a little early on my positioning, but I wouldn't fear the fiscal cliff drama. There are very obvious cracks in the surface. The Vix is looking toppy, the market leaders are looking very strong (SBUX,FB,TSLA,AMZN,BIDU,YHOO, and the Russell stock index), and we had a very strong fiscal cliff reversal on the gap down. So my general idea is buy the dip, fiscal cliff is basically priced in (as expected), and the market will keep going up on easing (which makes no sense). Also, the small caps were up on the day when the market was down. This is also a worrying sign for shorts as small cap stocks usually  lead the market moves. I am also worried about gold; however, I still am small directionally long and I am selling non directional vol in some stocks (staying super small). As for my positons delta wise (excluding theta because I usually sell theta) I have several calendar spreads on in SBUX, BBY, IWM, and X. I am short a little AAPL, long a little DIA, short a iron condor in EWW, Short some FXE, long a little FXI (diagonal spread), Long a little GDX, long a little Gold, long GOOG, long JNJ, short an iron condor in NEM, short POT, Short QQQ, way long SPY, short bonds, short a little UNG, Long Oil, closed my VIX positions (almost at the high of the day), long a little WLT, and short retail.

FYI, Below is a little study Julian Marchese did on buying the market from what has happened today:


sept30 query

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