Trade Ideas

As most of you know, I am a very active (often directional) trader who often has between 15 and 30 positions on at one time, but I believe my trades make money because of time decay and not because of my personal directional biases. However, I have never really given any specific trading ideas. So, I am doing this new thing where I will give out a top trade idea. These trades will also cover a large number of stocks, futures, Forex, and bond products. I am agnostic to trading products for the most part so I will have a large mix.

Today (premium play):

Since this is a trade that I don't have a particular opinion in, but I still wanted to do a skewed iron condor I gave it skew to the upside. The trade has a $33 dollar risk to the upside,  a $133 dollar risk to the downside, and a max profit of $67 giving it a 66.5% chance of making money. The vol in the product is also pretty decent trading around the 62% percentile in its one year range (it is best to do iron condors into high vol because of the premium). I prefer skewed condors because it decreases risk to one side if the markets fall to far and since there is a 16.75% chance that either side of the condor is in the money by expiration you might as well decrease risk on one side because between that 33.5% chance of not being profitable you have a 50/50 chance of being on one side or the other, so lets reduces the risk on one side (if you did a normal iron condor the risk is the same on both sides). The only bad thing about the skewed is your sweet spot (area of max profit) can tend to be a little smaller.