A Few Trades Ideas

I got burned in the last week, but so what! Lets look for some oppurtunity.....

XRT:
The ETF fell a lot and the volatility in it popped to 91th percentile. This makes me interested in iron condors and short premium trades. So considering how over sold it is just because of goverment shut down fears (There sound economic reasons for that but I think it is over done) I think I will just sell a put spread, but I may just do a skewed iron condor. Other than that the stock is good for short puts, wide strangles, wide iron condors, broken wing butterfly's, and skewed iron condors. There is a lot of room to increase your probability of profit and return on capital.

IWM/SPY (Main indices)
The volatility popped in these very quickly, so I am interested in selling more volatility and premuim. The VIX has gotten way over extend so skewed condors look best. I prefer the bullish side (buying the dip). However, I do already have the position in, but I may sell a put spread in the same month or closer to expiry weekly option as long as I can get decent premium and duration.

JNJ
The volatility in this product again has reached all time highs. I am personally selling a put spread, and I may sell another because volatility has popped since then. Just remember it is statistically proven that is better to stay small so be careful with your size.

BBY
The trade in here looks to be a non directional calendar spread. Studies show that calendar spreads into stock market strength and low volatility are often the most profitable out of short call spreads and long put spreads. So, this is the stock that I watch with lowest volatility and should be a great stock for a options spread looking for a volatility pop considering volatility is the most mean reverting asset in the world.

Trade Ideas

As most of you know, I am a very active (often directional) trader who often has between 15 and 30 positions on at one time, but I believe my trades make money because of time decay and not because of my personal directional biases. However, I have never really given any specific trading ideas. So, I am doing this new thing where I will give out a top trade idea. These trades will also cover a large number of stocks, futures, Forex, and bond products. I am agnostic to trading products for the most part so I will have a large mix.

Today (premium play):

Since this is a trade that I don't have a particular opinion in, but I still wanted to do a skewed iron condor I gave it skew to the upside. The trade has a $33 dollar risk to the upside,  a $133 dollar risk to the downside, and a max profit of $67 giving it a 66.5% chance of making money. The vol in the product is also pretty decent trading around the 62% percentile in its one year range (it is best to do iron condors into high vol because of the premium). I prefer skewed condors because it decreases risk to one side if the markets fall to far and since there is a 16.75% chance that either side of the condor is in the money by expiration you might as well decrease risk on one side because between that 33.5% chance of not being profitable you have a 50/50 chance of being on one side or the other, so lets reduces the risk on one side (if you did a normal iron condor the risk is the same on both sides). The only bad thing about the skewed is your sweet spot (area of max profit) can tend to be a little smaller.